Raiffeisenbank predicts further depreciation of the ruble

Possible gradual weakening of the ruble by the end of the year – Raiffeisenbank.

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Raiffeisenbank analyst Stanislav Murashov expects a smooth weakening of the ruble by the end of the year.

„The sharp weakening of the ruble of recent days is unlikely to look sustainable now: a strong foreign trade surplus (supported, on the one hand, by high prices for export goods, and, on the other hand, by significant difficulties for importers) will remain the main fundamental factor in supporting the Russian currency for at least a few more months (we expect a natural decrease in the surplus only by the end of the year, which may contribute to the weakening of the ruble to 70-80 rubles/$1).

In the long run, the ruble may also be supported by the payment of dividends by some large companies (which may prefer to use the conversion of foreign exchange earnings for this). At the same time, we also do not expect noticeable new initiatives to liberalize foreign exchange controls – in particular, we do not foresee relief for non-residents,” the bank’s expert writes.

Michael Cooper

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