Moscow. July 13. INTERFAX.RU – The United States has a 35% chance of entering a recession by the end of next year amid tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System (Fed), according to a report by analysts from the central bank.
At the moment, analysts, including the head of macro-financial analysis of the Fed, Andrea Aiello, assess the monetary policy rate as generally stimulating, but in the future the regulator will move to a „moderately contractive” policy, raising the rate to 2.5% at the end of 2022 and to 2.8 % at the end of 2023. Accordingly, the probability of a recession will increase to 25% at the end of this year and up to 35% at the end of next.
The experts also considered a more negative scenario, in which rates will rise faster. In this case, the rate will reach 5.1% by the end of 2023, and the probability of a recession will jump to 60%.