The expert predicted a new round of ruble weakening

In July, the scenario of the end of May was repeated, when verbal interventions were enough to weaken the ruble against the dollar from 56 to 67, after which the ruble began to strengthen again. Then we should wait for a new wave of strengthening, after which the national currency will weaken by autumn, Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, told the Prime agency.

In his opinion, in the second half of July, a new wave of strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro in the range of 50-55 is possible due to the tax period and the dividend season, when Russian exporters are actively selling foreign currency for settlements with the budget and shareholders.

„High energy prices, coupled with low demand for foreign currency due to the contraction of imports and severe restrictions on the movement of capital, as well as the lack of purchases of foreign currency into reserves by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule, have already led to a record surplus in Russia’s balance of payments – $ 138.5 billion in six months „, the expert recalled.

To restrain the excessive strengthening of the ruble, in his opinion, the introduction of foreign exchange interventions of the Ministry of Finance under the updated mechanism of the budget rule with the purchase of friendly currencies can.

“In the baseline scenario, we expect that the introduction of a modified fiscal rule will slow down the strengthening of the ruble, but will not be able to turn the ruble towards a significant weakening,” Vasiliev explained.

In his opinion, in the second half of the year they will give 65-70 rubles for the dollar, 68-73 rubles for the euro.

Michael Cooper

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