S&P index approaches, but closes below 200 hour MA. Monday will be a key day ahead of CPI

The major US indices close both the day and the week. All major indexes ended the day up more than 2%. During the week, the increases of the most important indices are from about 1 percent to 1.5 percent. Final numbers show: Dow Industrial Average up 700.53 points o 2.13% 33630.62 SandP up 86.98 points or 2.28% 3895.07 Nasdaq up Rus 0. 0 206% gain 206% 206% 206% 206% 206% 206% 206% % 2 % 2.28% gain 2.28% Dow up 1. 6D SandP up 1. 5D Nasdaq plus 0.98D Russell 2000 plus 1.79D Technical review after the month SandP December 2nd rally with SandP closing at 071 was shortened on the day After the trade down to testing Tuesday 200′. This MA was around 3818. Price stopped at this 200 hour MA and moved back higher. The CPI day on Tuesday December 13th opened higher than expected following a better CPI and hit a high of 100.96 shortly after the open. Note that CPI was better than expected at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Stocks then turned lower as momentum picked up on the downside. It was a disappointing better-than-expected inflation report. On Thursday (December 15) of the same week, the price remained below the 200-hour MA (green MA line) and showed no subsequent selling. The lowest value was reached at 376 . 9 on Thursday, December 22. The transition from the highest level of the consumer price index to the lowest level on December 22 was -8.7%. Fast forward to today and price is running and back to the familiar 200 hour MA. The high reached 3906 today, just below the 200 hour MA of 3910.32. This MA is within 8 pips of the 200 hour MA that stopped the decline on December 6th – the Tuesday after December. Monday will be interesting for US stocks to see if the price can break above the 200 hour MA and start trading with a more bullish bias for the first time since December 1a post-CPI day. If it can break above the 200 hour MA, the market will look to the next CPI release next Thursday, January 12th. CPI should be 0.0% (versus 0.1%). Last month). Core should be 0.3% vs. 0.2%. The headline CPI is expected to fall from 7.1% to 6.5%. If MoM CPI is 0.0%, the last 6 month average would be 0.0167% per month or 2.0% over 6 months. This is the Fed’s target rate. The core, however, is higher. Taking into account the expected 0.3%, the six-month average would be 0.038% per month, or .6% per year. However, there are things like rents that keep it higher than expected. The thing is, if the CPI is 2.0% for six months, that could be enough to push the stock market back to 100. The market will decide that next week, but first is the 200 hourly price. I’m broke?

Michael Cooper

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