Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, ECB, BoE, PMI data, US Jobs, EZ CPI

Australian Retail Sales (Tuesday): December retail sales data is -1.0%, down from 1. % previously. The desks point out that November’s Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday events were successful, as noted in the November data, although analysts are now assessing the impact of higher interest rates over the Christmas period. Westpac, citing the Westpac Card Tracker, suggests that conditions were good in December, although „retail components were softer as growth in card activity focused on non-retail segments such as travel and leisure. The heavy weight of food (just over half of total ).retail business) also slowed, some of which may be price-related,” the desk said, forecasting a lower contraction of 0.3%. China NBS PMI (Tuesday): January official PMIs expected to improve after withdrawal. China’s Zero Covid Policy. The market expects the manufacturing gauge to rise to 9.7 from December’s 7.0, remaining in contraction territory, while the non-manufacturing (est. 1.6) and composites (est. 2.6) are currently lacking. Analysts at ING also expect the manufacturing PMI to continue to contract, but anticipate that the non-manufacturing PMI should rise slightly, and Caixin reports expecting a similar pattern. As usual, PMI releases are likely to be tweaked for anecdotal comments on growth, inflation and business sentiment. EZ Prelim. GDP (Tuesday): Forecast Q/Q IV Q GDP will contract by 0.1% compared to 0.3% growth in the third quarter and is forecast to be 1.7% annually. 2.3% Before the release, Investec analysts emphasize that the next edition will probably be accompanied by an interruption in the growth of the Euro-regional economy in the period between the first and third quarter, despite the headwind caused by the rise in energy prices. Investec expects only a modest contraction in the fourth quarter, but notes that it does not expect the eurozone to „escape from a low recession this winter”, adding that despite the recent drop in gas prices, higher energy prices continue to weigh on European consumers. . and higher inflation more generally. Investec also warns that the second half of 2023 may bring new winds to the region, as the pressure of the price of energy may be renewed and the effects of previous interest rate hikes will be felt. Ahead of the ECB’s next policy announcement, ING (which supports a consensus call) notes that fourth-quarter GDP growth is likely to stall, even if an outright decline is avoided, which should also give the ECB more confidence to stay on the way US Labor Costs (Tuesday): US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard said in remarks on January 19 that there are initial signs of a slowdown in US wage growth. He noted that average hourly wage growth has weakened recently, slowing to .1% on a 3-month basis in December, down from about .5% on a 6- and 12-month basis. An influential Federal Reserve policymaker said he would watch closely to see if the fourth-quarter labor cost index data indicated a further slowdown from the third quarter. Brainard said that price developments and the slowdown in wages provide some confidence that we are not in the midst of a 1970s-style wage-price cycle, and so it remains possible that a continued slowdown in aggregate demand could moderate a further slowdown in the labor market. . a slowdown in inflation without significant job losses. That could give the Fed enough confidence to potentially raise rates as it assesses the impact of its 25 basis point tightening so far to ease price pressures. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect 1.2% in the fourth quarter, matching the pace of the third quarter. Financial markets are currently pricing in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year, and while officials have leaned toward that story, a cooling in the labor cost index, along with other inflation and continued weakening of wages, is at least a factor. gives the central bank the opportunity to slow the tightening of monetary policy when the economy slows, if necessary. EZ Flash CPI (Three): January Y/Y CPI is expected to fall to 9.0% from 9.2%, the core reading (excluding food and energy) is steady at 6.9% and supercore output is expected to fall to 5, to 5.1 percent of 5.2 percent. The previous report characterized headline inflation as recovering in the single digits, driven by lower energy prices, but as goods and services inflation picked up, the headline figure actually rose from 5.0% to 5.2%. ING then warned: „The next two months will be critical because many companies routinely change their prices at the beginning of the year. So it could be that core inflation accelerates more. Ahead of the next release, Moody’s expects more of the same. for headline inflation when energy prices falls.” However, there are forces slowing down the extent of the decline, with analysts emphasizing „recovery of German energy inflation after December’s one-off policy and 15% rise in French electricity and gas prices”. Moody’s adds that it expects food inflation to remain strong and expects the core measure to increase, as „January PMI surveys reported a marked increase in sales prices for manufacturers and service providers.” From a policy perspective, the release is unlikely to have much of an impact on Thursday’s ECB policy announcement, with market pricing in around an 87% chance of a 50bps move. However, strong core inflation after February may convince some market participants that another 50 basis points are on the way in March, although recent sources suggest that 25 basis points could be on the table at that meeting. JMMC meeting (K): The Joint Control Committee of the Ministry (JMMC) will meet on Wednesday to review the fundamentals of the energy market. It is not a decisive meeting – currently the next meeting of OPEC ministers is scheduled for June , 2023. According to Bloomberg and Reuters sources, the JMMC recommends keeping oil production unchanged, citing a tentative recovery in global demand. A find

Michael Cooper

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