Moscow. 4th of July. INTERFAX.RU – Oil prices could soar into the stratosphere and reach $380 per barrel in the worst-case scenario, in which Russia cuts fuel supplies in response to Western sanctions, analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co predict. Their position leads Bloomberg.
According to them, Russia can afford to reduce production by 5 million barrels per day without causing excessive harm to the economy. Moscow may do so because of various possible measures by the West, including imposing a ceiling on the price buyers pay for Russian oil.
At the same time, the consequences of such actions for the rest of the world will be catastrophic. A 3 mb/d cut would push Brent crude prices to $190/bbl, while in a worst-case scenario, if production falls by 5 mb/d, prices would soar to $380/bbl, analysts say.
“The most obvious and likely risk associated with the imposition of a price cap is that Russia may decide not to participate in this scheme and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the experts write. “It is likely that the government may retaliate by cutting production to harm the West. The lack of supply in the world oil market is playing into the hands of Russia.”
By 10:23 am Moscow time, September Brent futures were trading on London’s ICE Futures at $111.8 per barrel, while August WTI futures were trading at $108.6 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).