Inflation in June this year. It was 15.6%, which is the highest reading in over 25 years, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported today in its preliminary estimate.
Another record. Inflation in June amounted to 15.6% y / y. We pay 1.5% more during the month. However, this is just an empty statistic. In fact, prices move much faster and all consumers feel it. This can be seen in the survey data on the consumer sentiment. Poles in black colors see both the current situation and the future. This may mean a reduction in consumer demand in the end. This would be another factor predicting the beginning of a sharp economic slowdown. On the other hand, the economic downturn may have a decisive impact on the next decisions of the MPC. Our scenario for the maximum interest rate in 2022 – 6.5% – remains valid.
However, if we assume that the price increase is exactly as reported by the Central Statistical Office, PLN 100 from June 2021 is now worth PLN 86, and in fact it is probably closer to the values oscillating at PLN 60.
Such a strong increase in prices compared to the previous year is probably dictated by the more and more expensive crude oil in the world and the high costs of energy production. In the case of Poland, there is also an increase in fuel prices. For the inflation index itself, due to the calculation methodology, the announced fuel discounts or subsidies for a ton of coal will not be of much importance.
In the next two or three months we have to be prepared for the next record inflation readings. Entrepreneurs have and will continue to have problems with increased costs of manufacturing products. It is enough to mention that the prices for producers are increasing by over 24% for another month in a row.
Comment by Mariusz Zielonka, an economic exp