EURUSD rose almost % for the week, boosted by a weak US dollar. A softer than expected US CPI report and rising consumer inflation expectations pushed the US dollar lower. Double-digit inflation in Germany supported the euro. EURUSD Price Analysis: 200-DMA may be tested soon on a positive note. , Euro (EUR) ended the week higher after the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US Department of Labor (DoL) released a soft inflation report. Consequently, the US Dollar (USD) extended its losses to four consecutive weeks as hopes for a slowdown in the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening cycle following the CPI release remained high. Therefore, the Euro continued its advance, as the EURUSD gained 1. 2%, exchanging hands at 1.0352. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX WEIGHS ON THE US DOLLAR Wall Street finished the week with solid gains. The US inflation report on Thursday showed that core CPI, closely followed by the Federal Reserve, eased from 6.6% YoY in September to 6.3%, well below estimates. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for November tumbled to a four-month low from 59.5 to 5 .7, as reported on Friday. Based on the UoM survey, inflation expectations for the one-year horizon rose to 5.1 percent, while the five- and ten-year horizon jumped from 2.9 percent to 3 percent. Joanne Hsu, who led the study, said: „Continued uncertainty around inflation expectations suggests that such strengthening is still possible in the future.” Last Thursday’s CPI report overshadowed traders’ reaction to the UoM survey. EURUSD continued to rally on Friday after hitting an intraday low of 1.0163 and rose sharply to an intraday high of 1.036 . , traders expect the Fed to hike by 50 basis points in December. Investors are starting to price in a less „fake” Fed. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, money market futures are up 50 basis points on the 85.6% interest rate, which was unchanged after the release of US inflation data. German harmonized consumer price index within 11 days On the Eurozone (EU) side, the German consumer price index rose by 10. % per year according to the forecast. Meanwhile, Germany’s Harmonized Consumer Price Index (CHPI) rose by an expected 11.6% year-on-year in October, but was 0.7% higher than in September. In addition, some European Central Bank (ECB) decision makers overruled news sources and maintained their hawkish stance, strengthening the euro. ECB member Robert Holtzman said he would vote for a hike of 50 or 75 basis points at the December meeting, while ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos said a technical recession in the euro zone was likely, adding that markets were overreacting to the U.S. CPI. In addition, ECB Pablo Hernandez de Cos added that quantitative easing (QT) may be announced in December and the probability of a recession has increased. Meanwhile, ECB member Mario Centeno said the euro was not going through an „existential crisis”. EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical Perspective Considering the fundamentals, the EURUSD rose to 1.036 on August 10th. However, it failed to break it on a daily basis, which could worsen the rally towards the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0 38. NOTE! The relative strength index (RSI) in an uptrend is almost overbought, but since the uptrend is strong, technicians consider the 80 level of the RSI to be the most extreme. However, the path of least resistance is up. Therefore, the first resistance of EURUSD would be the high of August 10 of 1.036 , followed by the psychological number of 1.0 00. The breakdown above shows the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, EURUSD’s first support would be 1.0300, followed by 1.0250 and the November 11 low of 1.0163.