EURUSD gained nearly , % for the week, boosted by a weak US dollar. A softer than expected US CPI report and rising consumer inflation expectations pushed the US dollar lower. Double-digit inflation in Germany supported the euro. EURUSD Price Analysis: 200 DMA Test May Be Positive Soon. , The Euro (EUR) ended the week higher after the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US Department of Labor (DoL) released a mild inflation report. As a result, the US dollar (USD) extended its losing streak to four consecutive weeks as hopes of a slowdown in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle following the CPI release remained high. Consequently, the euro continued to rise as EURUSD rose 2% to 1. and changed hands at 1.0352. US CPI WEIGHTS US DOLLAR Wall Street ended the week firmly. Thursday’s U.S. inflation report showed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s closely watched core consumer price index fell well below a forecast of 6.3 percent from 6.6 percent in September. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment index fell 59.5 points to a four-month low of 5 .7 in November, as reported on Friday. Based on the UoM survey, inflation expectations for the one-year horizon rose to 5.1 percent, while the five- and ten-year horizons jumped from 2.9 percent to 3 percent. Joanne Hsu, who led the study, said: „Continued uncertainty around inflation expectations suggests that such a strengthening is possible in the future.” Last Thursday’s CPI report overshadowed traders’ reaction to the UoM survey. EURUSD continued to rise on Friday after touching an intraday low of 1.0163 and rose sharply to an intraday high of 1.036 at . , Traders expect the Fed to raise 50 basis points in December. Investors are starting to price in a less „fake” Fed. Money market futures are up 50 basis points at 85.6%, unchanged after the release of US inflation data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. German harmonized consumer price index in 11 days On the Eurozone (EU) side, the German consumer price index rose by 10. % per year according to the forecast. Meanwhile, Germany’s harmonized consumer price index (CHPI) rose by an expected 11.6% in October, but was 0.7% higher than in September. In addition, some European Central Bank (ECB) decision-makers bypassed news sources and maintained their irrational position by strengthening the euro. ECB member Robert Holtzman said he would vote for a hike of 50 or 75 basis points at the December meeting, while ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos said a technical recession in the euro zone was likely and added that markets were overreacting to the U.S. CPI. In addition, ECB Pablo Hernandez de Cos added that quantitative easing (QT) may be announced in December and the probability of a recession has increased. Meanwhile, ECB member Mario Centeno said the euro was not going through an „existential crisis”. EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical Perspective Considering fundamentals, EURUSD rose to 1.036 on August 10th. However, it failed to break it on a daily basis, which could weaken the rally to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.0 38. NOTE! The relative strength index (RSI) in an uptrend is almost overbought, but since the uptrend is strong, technicians consider the 80 level of the RSI to be the most extreme. However, the path of least resistance is up. Therefore, the first resistance for EURUSD would be the August 10 high of 1.036 , followed by the psychological reading of 1.0 00. The above breakdown shows the 200-day EMA. On the other hand, EURUSD’s first support would be 1.0300, followed by 1.0250 and the November 11 low of 1.0163.