ECB’s Kazaks: 25 bps in July, 50 bps in September is the base case

  • Though it may be worth looking at 50 bps rate hike in July
  • It may be reasonable to frontload rate hikes

The more hawkish members will try and push for 50 bps in July but it doesn’t look like they will be able to get that though. As things stand, it seems almost likely the ECB will play it „by the book” as per their base case scenario. And that is precisely what markets have already priced in for the time being.

Michael Cooper

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